UEFA Nations League League D - 4 Full Time

Prediction: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League

Azerbaijan Home

1–0 HT 1–0

Lithuania Away

Kick-off: 04 Oct 2026 · 21:00 MYT
Bakcell Arena, Baku

The model's 1·X·2 read · pre-match

◆ Draw or Lithuania · Under 3.5 goals Missed

Model estimate Probabilities from our data model — not bookmaker odds.

1 10% Azerbaijan win

PICK X 45% Draw

PICK 2 45% Lithuania win

Combo Double chance : draw or Lithuania and -3.5 goals

Team Comparison

33% Form 67%

25% Attack 75%

41.6% Overall 58.4%

Season profile

Azerbaijan 0-2-0

Form DD

Goal timing

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Scored 1 Conceded 1

Lithuania 1-1-0

Form WD

Goal timing

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Scored 3 Conceded 1

Team Overview

Azerbaijan HOME

0% Win rate DD

GF 1 GA 1 CS 1

Lithuania AWAY

50% Win rate WD

GF 3 GA 1 CS 1

Top Performers

A. Xaybulayev

Azerbaijan ⚽ 1

7.8

T. Švedkauskas

Lithuania

7.6

T. Bayramov

Azerbaijan 🆕 1

7.2

M. Emreli

Azerbaijan

7.1

B. Hüseynov

Azerbaijan

7.1

E. Utkus

Lithuania

7.0

Odds

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
William Hill	2.30	2.88	3.10
Bet365	2.38	3.10	3.10
Marathonbet	2.39	3.10	3.32
Betfair	2.30	2.80	3.25
BetVictor	2.38	3.00	3.20
Pinnacle	2.41	2.88	3.47
SBO	2.26	2.73	2.78
	2.42	3.13	3.36
Betano	2.42	2.90	3.20
22Bet	2.85	2.86	2.832
Sportaza	2.6	3.0	2.9
Betlabel	2.565	2.9	3.144
bwin	1.77	7.0	2.45
Granawin	2.55	2.9	2.95
Interwetten	2.6	2.95	3.0
	2.55	2.9	2.95
Megapari	2.704	2.896	2.965
Pamestoixima.gr	2.72	2.82	2.85
Spinbetter	2.735	2.85	2.97

Bookmaker	Home/Draw	Home/Away	Draw/Away
William Hill	1.33	1.36	1.57
Bet365	1.36	1.36	1.57
Marathonbet	1.35	1.39	1.61
Betfair	1.29	1.36	1.53
BetVictor	1.33	1.33	1.50
SBO	1.29	1.30	1.44
	1.35	1.39	1.61
Betano	1.37	1.38	1.57
22Bet	1.448	1.44	1.443
Sportaza	1.37	1.35	1.44
Betlabel	1.379	1.431	1.528
bwin	1.41	1.38	1.44
Granawin	1.36	1.37	1.44
Interwetten	1.4	1.37	1.5
	1.36	1.37	1.44
Megapari	1.417	1.433	1.483
Pamestoixima.gr	1.38	1.4	1.42
Spinbetter	1.415	1.443	1.475

Bookmaker	Yes	No
William Hill	2.05	1.70
Bet365	2.20	1.62
Marathonbet	2.12	1.64
Betfair	2.05	1.73
BetVictor	2.10	1.65
	2.12	1.66
Betano	2.05	1.70
22Bet	2.17	1.626
Sportaza	2.2	1.62
Betlabel	2.16	1.634
bwin	2.2	1.62
Granawin	2.13	1.66
Interwetten	2.15	1.63
	2.13	1.66
Megapari	2.16	1.634
Pamestoixima.gr	2.22	1.58
Spinbetter	2.27	1.575

Bookmaker	Home/Draw	Home/Away	Draw/Away	Draw/Draw	Home/Home	Draw/Home	Away/Home	Away/Draw	Away/Away
Bet365	17.00	41.00	6.50	4.33	4.00	5.50	34.00	17.00	5.00
Marathonbet	16.50	48.00	7.00	3.96	3.72	5.30	41.00	16.50	5.45
Betfair	13.00	36.00	7.00	4.20	3.75	5.50	26.00	13.00	5.50
SBO	13.48	38.44	6.18	4.16	3.95	5.32	34.60	13.48	4.93
	16.50	48.00	7.00	3.96	3.72	5.30	41.00	16.50	5.45
Betano	14.50	50.00	6.60	3.90	4.10	5.20	37.00	15.50	5.60

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
William Hill	2.90	1.95	4.00
Bet365	3.00	1.91	4.00
Marathonbet	3.12	1.90	4.15
Betfair	3.00	1.91	3.75
BetVictor	3.13	1.90	4.00
Pinnacle	3.15	1.99	4.24
SBO	2.98	1.82	3.52
	3.12	1.90	4.15
Betano	3.15	1.85	3.95

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
William Hill	2.80	2.05	3.75
Bet365	2.75	2.20	3.40
Marathonbet	2.80	2.17	3.72
	2.80	2.17	3.72
Betano	2.80	2.20	3.50

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
Marathonbet	6.45	1.23	8.40

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
Marathonbet	4.05	1.54	5.25
Betano	4.30	1.53	5.30

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
Marathonbet	2.75	2.21	3.70
Betano	2.90	2.20	3.70

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away
Marathonbet	2.52	2.53	3.38

Bookmaker	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
22Bet	2.72	1.39
Sportaza	2.6	1.46
Betlabel	2.64	1.41
bwin	2.8	1.42
Granawin	2.65	1.44
Interwetten	2.7	1.43
	2.65	1.44
Megapari	2.64	1.41
Pamestoixima.gr	2.75	1.41
Spinbetter	2.84	1.36